6 July 2002

Prediction of TC Genesis

While Rammasun is in the decaying stage and Chataan becomes the main system over the western North Pacific, the ECMWF predictions are calling for another TC development over the South China Sea (Fig. 1).  On this morning's sat pix (Fig. 2), some convection can be found over the South China Sea but no one would predict the development of a tropical cyclone yet.  The UK Met Office (UKMO) also predicted similar development.  On the other hand, JT upgraded the convection at 160^oE to having a fair chance of developing into a tropical cyclone but the predictions from ECMWF maintained this system as only a low without much strong winds associated with it. UKMO also did not predict development of this system. 

So we will see who turns out to be correct.

Fig. 1.