27 June 2002
Next wave of TC activity over the western North Pacific (2)?
Following on from yesterday's discussion, the development of the TCs this weekend is likely a result of very strong cross-equatorial flow (see JMA analysis from 26 Jun 12 UTC, Fig. 1). This flow is clearly evident in the sat pix this morning (Fig. 2), which also shows the signs of the two developing vortices. So I think it is almost certain that the next wave of TC activity will come during the next few days.
Again, the question is whether we can rely on global model forecasts for TC genesis?
